Replacement migration" in the Russian Federation: specifics of manifestation and potential threats of scenario implementation

Abstract

The efforts undertaken by the Russian Federation to integrate into the global migration architecture have conditioned the subsequent reception of a number of Western normative practices within national migration legislation. These practices are oriented toward expanding the rights of foreign-language and foreign-culture migrants and their communities, primarily those originating from the states of Central Asia and the Transcaucasus. Within the framework of this approach, the external migration flows directed toward Russia-exhibiting an exponential increase in quantitative indicators-have been interpreted exclusively in a positive connotation, namely as an essential economic and demographic resource and a natural consequence of objective globalization processes. The aim of this study is to identify a set of risks to the maintenance of socio-political stability in the context of the implementation of "replacement migration" scenarios. The objectives of the research include identifying the specific characteristics of the "replacement migration" phenomenon as applied to migration processes within the territory of the Russian Federation, as well as conducting a comparative analysis of the programs implemented by the International Organization for Migration and the corresponding modifications of Russian migration legislation. The methodological framework of the study comprises comparative and politico-legal analysis, which have enabled the juxtaposition of replacement migration scenarios and the examination of selected international normative legal acts in the field of migration regulation, alongside the functional repertoire of relevant international organizations. The findings obtained provide a foundation for a detailed analysis of the "replacement migration"scenarios outlined in the United Nations report, viewed through the lens of the transformation of the state migration management system in the Russian Federation and the degree of involvement of the International Organization for Migration in this process. The conclusions of the study systematize the potential migration risks associated with "replacement migration" policy across such domains as domestic and foreign policy, economy, and demography. Furthermore, they establish a basis for the formulation of specific response measures and counteraction strategies against negative trends.