Discussions on the future of the Antarctic regime: benefits for Russia?

Abstract

The article examines possible directions for the transformation of the Antarctic legal regime under the continuing constraints of international law. It addresses the question of whether the idea of dividing Antarctica remains feasible, as well as which concepts of international law may serve as a basis for the redistribution of spaces in the polar region. Particular attention is paid to Article IV of the Antarctic Treaty and to the phenomenon of «treaty sovereignty», which allows states to preserve symbolic claims while refraining from their actual implementation. The study identifies and consistently analyses the sector principle and the principle of effective occupation as the main and most general groups of approaches to territorial delimitation. Their origins and applicability to the Antarctic case are examined with reference to the Arctic experience. A separate section is devoted to the analysis of regimes governing the use of Antarctic mineral resources, including the Convention on the Regulation of Antarctic Mineral Resource Activities (CRAMRA) and the 1991 Madrid Protocol, as well as the conditions under which these instruments could potentially be revised. Based on the findings, the article assesses the possible implications of changes to the legal regime for Russia as one of the key participants in the Antarctic Treaty System. It substantiates the conclusion that the recognition of state sovereignty in Antarctica is unlikely in the near future, while alternative forms of presence and influence related to scientific activity, infrastructure, and access to resources are gaining importance. The article concludes that Russia’s active participation in shaping future mechanisms of governance in the Antarctic space is necessary in order to preserve its position and protect its national interests.